Monday, March 17, 2008

ေဒါက္တာေန၀င္းေမာင္ ၏ ေဒၚေအာင္ဆန္းစုၾကည္သို ့အၾကံေပးစာ

It is becoming more and more obvious that General Than Shwe is managing his own way out-even seems in rush. On the other hand, most of the Burmese were whispering to retaliate him through the referendum.

The current situation is precisely a critical dilemma for the Burmese whether if to say yes or no to the constitution. The fact of the matter is to consider whether if we are letting him enjoy the way out or not. It is also a very crucial decision for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi where if to let him get the way out. By saying no by Daw Aung Sann Su Kyi to the referendum, it is in a way showing lacking willingness to let Senior General get the way-out which is somehow like putting him into the corner. Again, this may lead to another political deadlock.

Regardless of whatever we are voting at the referendum, it is more than sure that the constitution will be rectified. If it is so, saying no by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will give rise to indifferent non productive situation – again back to the square one. General Than Shwe is seeking the way out but we must understand that he will not take any type of way out offered by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or NLD. The way out what he is seeking is the institutionalized way out as a Right as he thinks it is a face issue.

Burmese people this time should be smart enough and set aside the emotions so as not to craft again another deadlock. Especially people like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should not facilitate the emotions of the crowd.

The drafted construction should be considered as a Pareto-optimality that we can anticipate from the regime. From the very technical angle, that constitution per-se is within the acceptable limits if one look at the intrinsic values. This unilateral version can even give rise to a genuine democracy if the election results were not manipulated as we have still 75 % of the seats at the both chambers. But again, it is very sure that the gov will manipulate the election result for their favor at the forth coming election.

The given situation of Myanmar politics in fact needed a smart strategy and clear vision. The best way could be encapsulated as below.

1. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should provide a good will gesture by means of letting General Than Shwe get the way out by saying yes to the constitution.

2. Again, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should endorse the constitution so as to make sure the fate of NLD.

3. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD must focus the election especially to make sure NLD being not to be disenfranchised- instead of the referendum.

4. In order to make sure the genuine election results and strong opposition, NLD must pronounce that they are going to contest only half of the seats of the both chambers (better to take part at the non ethnic constituencies) – in a way sending a signal to the regime that the objective is just to be merely the opposition.

5. NLD should learn to differentiate the genuine opposition politics and the confrontasia politic so as to build up the shadow government even at the first term.

6. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi can strengthen her organization while serving as an opposition within those five years.

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